Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -700 ILST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +15 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -10.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -8.5 (+6.5) | 140.7 (+24.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -10.2 (+4.8) | 140.5 (+24.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -8.0 (+7.0) | 142.5 (+22.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -7.6 (+7.4) | 143.6 (+21.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | ILST 81 – 74 BEL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BEL 80 – 69 ILST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | BEL 76 – 63 ILST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ILST 81 – 78 BEL |
| Dec 5, 2024 | BEL 99 – 97 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#131) | -4.5 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#110) | -0.73 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#127) | -1.05 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#81) | 0.453 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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