Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -200 NIU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -4.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -3.1 (-11.1) | 150.5 (+13.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -2.5 (-10.5) | 149.3 (+14.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -2.1 (-10.1) | 150.0 (+14.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -1.9 (-9.9) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BGSU 68 – 52 NIU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BGSU 71 – 58 NIU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | BGSU 84 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | BGSU 83 – 72 NIU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | BGSU 87 – 65 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#250) | -5.6 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#270) | -0.69 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#273) | -0.87 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#287) | 0.472 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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