Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -270 NIU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -9.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -5.9 (+1.1) | 148.8 (+12.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -6.6 (+0.4) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -6.2 (+0.8) | 146.5 (+14.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -5.8 (+1.2) | 145.9 (+15.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BGSU 68 – 52 NIU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BGSU 71 – 58 NIU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | BGSU 83 – 72 NIU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | NIU 86 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 5, 2022 | BGSU 87 – 65 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-10 |
| Away | 5-8 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#307) | -14.7 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#329) | -2.49 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#333) | -2.84 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#335) | 0.383 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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