Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +140 USA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -2.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.6 (-6.4) | 139.2 (-3.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -2.8 (-5.2) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.2 (-6.8) | 138.4 (-2.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.8 (-6.2) | 139.6 (-3.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | USA 89 – 54 ULM |
| Dec 18, 2025 | USA 96 – 92 ULM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | ULM 62 – 58 USA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ULM 77 – 66 USA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USA 80 – 69 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#265) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#217) | -0.61 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#211) | -0.64 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#202) | 0.487 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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