The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
Mid-American Conference · University Arena (MI) · February 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread BUF -3.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money WMU +170 / BUF -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total WMU win
Actual BUF +9 161 Lost
Massey BUF -2.4 (-6.6)
Massey Totals 155.7 (+5.3)
Bradley-Terry 25%
Weighted B-T 25%
Baseline ML BUF -3.6 (-5.4) 152.8 (+8.2) 39%
Baseline Plus ML BUF -3.1 (-5.9) 151.5 (+9.5) 41%
Efficiency Plus ML BUF -4.7 (-4.3) 149.4 (+11.6) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML BUF -3.2 (-5.8) 152.2 (+8.8) 36%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 20, 2025 BUF 8871 WMU
Feb 19, 2025 WMU 9764 BUF
Jan 18, 2025 BUF 8576 WMU
Feb 24, 2024 WMU 9172 BUF
Jan 6, 2024 WMU 8277 BUF

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WMU BUF
Overall 8-23 15-17
Conference 4-14 9-9
Home 7-7 11-4
Away 1-15 3-9
Neutral 0-1 1-4
Last 5 0-5 2-3
Streak W1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.3 75.4
Avg Pts Against 76.5 79.0
Massey -7.0 (#292) -1.1 (#193)
Bradley-Terry -2.13 (#341) -0.41 (#218)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.35 (#332) -0.52 (#210)
RPI 0.405 (#337) 0.491 (#189)
Shooting & Four Factors WMU BUF
FG% 42.1% 44.5%
3PT% 31.7% 31.5%
REB / G 37.1 37.5
OREB / G 12.4 12.2
AST / TO 0.91 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 49.7%
TOV% 19.7% 20.2%
ORB% 34.8% 32.4%
FT Rate 22.0% 21.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.1% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 14.0% 19.1%
DRB% 73.4% 69.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.1% 27.7%

Game Analysis

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