Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WMU -425 BUF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -10.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -7.9 (-16.9) | 150.8 (+10.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WMU -7.9 (-16.9) | 151.3 (+9.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WMU -7.1 (-16.1) | 147.9 (+13.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -6.8 (-15.8) | 148.9 (+12.1) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#266) | -12.0 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#324) | -1.77 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#309) | -2.85 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#285) | 0.430 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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