Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WMU -250 BUF +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +19 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | WMU -8.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -7.5 (+11.5) | 142.2 (+20.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -5.9 (+13.1) | 143.2 (+19.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -7.4 (+11.6) | 142.3 (+20.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -7.1 (+11.9) | 142.0 (+21.0) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-7 | 2-13 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#298) | -13.2 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#286) | -2.54 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#294) | -3.21 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#288) | 0.409 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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