Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +114 BUF -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +17 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.8 (-16.2) | 146.1 (+12.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -1.6 (-15.4) | 144.6 (+14.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -1.9 (-15.1) | 147.7 (+11.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -1.1 (-15.9) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#271) | 0.3 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#208) | 1.12 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#215) | 1.31 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#212) | 0.568 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 37.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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