Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | AMER +200 COLG -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -2.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -2.8 (+3.8) | 137.9 (-16.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -4.1 (+5.1) | 133.6 (-12.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -2.2 (+3.2) | 138.5 (-17.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -2.3 (+3.3) | 139.9 (-18.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | AMER 70 – 66 COLG |
| Jan 8, 2026 | COLG 64 – 62 AMER |
| Mar 9, 2025 | AMER 72 – 62 COLG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | AMER 67 – 59 COLG |
| Jan 25, 2025 | AMER 81 – 77 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-9 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#219) | 3.1 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#205) | 0.43 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#220) | 0.71 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#222) | 0.528 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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