Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APP +130 JMU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | JMU -4.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -2.4 (-3.6) | 141.4 (-21.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -2.5 (-3.5) | 139.4 (-19.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -2.4 (-3.6) | 140.5 (-20.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -2.5 (-3.5) | 141.5 (-21.5) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | JMU 69 – 58 APP |
| Jan 15, 2026 | APP 80 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | APP 58 – 50 JMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | APP 86 – 66 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | APP 82 – 76 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#173) | 7.3 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#194) | 0.57 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | 1.08 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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