Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MER -400 VMI +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +26 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MER -10.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -8.0 (+18.0) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -6.7 (+19.3) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.5 (+18.5) | 136.5 (-2.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -7.1 (+18.9) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#247) | -10.9 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#258) | -2.52 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#254) | -2.99 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#259) | 0.393 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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