Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +450 UNCG -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +20 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -7.9 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.8 (-12.2) | 133.3 (+4.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.5 (-12.5) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -7.5 (-12.5) | 130.0 (+8.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -7.1 (-12.9) | 130.7 (+7.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#324) | 2.3 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#317) | 0.34 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#308) | 0.47 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#317) | 0.537 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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