Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -163 UNC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +6 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -4.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.5 (+1.5) | 142.9 (-22.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.3 (+0.7) | 142.0 (-22.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.3 (+0.7) | 143.9 (-23.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.8 (+1.2) | 143.3 (-23.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#27) | 11.1 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#22) | 1.96 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#26) | 2.71 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#19) | 0.600 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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