Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +700 CONN -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +6 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -17.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.7 (+6.7) | 150.8 (-20.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -14.6 (+8.6) | 148.8 (-18.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -13.1 (+7.1) | 149.5 (-19.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -13.9 (+7.9) | 148.9 (-18.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 13-7 |
| Home | 5-12 | 15-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#223) | 18.2 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#264) | 2.41 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#252) | 3.41 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#284) | 0.591 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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