Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -950 GTWN +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +16 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -13.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.3 (+4.7) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.9 (+5.1) | 136.7 (-18.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.2 (+4.8) | 136.2 (-18.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.8 (+5.2) | 136.1 (-18.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CONN 89 – 64 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#11) | 7.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#4) | 1.18 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.89 (#5) | 1.68 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#4) | 0.518 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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