Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +600 CONN -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -14.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.2 (+9.2) | 143.3 (-17.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.4 (+10.4) | 142.8 (-16.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.5 (+9.5) | 142.6 (-16.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.0 (+10.0) | 145.1 (-19.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CONN 89 – 64 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#126) | 20.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#112) | 5.35 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#103) | 7.26 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#162) | 0.683 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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