Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1400 GTWN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +14 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -10.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -11.1 (+2.9) | 141.6 (+30.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.6 (+1.4) | 140.6 (+31.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.5 (+4.5) | 140.9 (+31.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.9 (+4.1) | 141.9 (+30.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CONN 89 – 64 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#32) | 7.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#51) | 0.89 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#37) | 1.13 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#82) | 0.513 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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