Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1650 GTWN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -18.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -17.8 (-13.8) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.3 (-11.3) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -16.6 (-12.6) | 142.8 (+11.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -17.9 (-13.9) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CONN 89 – 64 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#11) | 5.9 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.59 (#4) | 1.27 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.69 (#4) | 1.83 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#4) | 0.530 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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