Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +900 CONN -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +25 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -16.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -16.6 (-8.4) | 142.7 (+10.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -14.9 (-10.1) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -14.7 (-10.3) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -16.7 (-8.3) | 146.4 (+6.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | CONN 68 – 60 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 18-2 |
| Home | 7-12 | 17-0 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 63.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#176) | 19.3 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#225) | 3.65 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#196) | 4.42 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#270) | 0.632 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.