Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +180 CONN -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -3.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -1.0 (-7.0) | 140.9 (-12.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -3.2 (-4.8) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -0.9 (-7.1) | 140.3 (-12.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -0.8 (-7.2) | 141.5 (-13.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | CONN 67 – 51 GTWN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | CONN 79 – 75 GTWN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CONN 64 – 62 GTWN |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CONN 93 – 79 GTWN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CONN 89 – 64 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#71) | 15.9 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#63) | 2.16 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#72) | 3.13 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#69) | 0.573 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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