Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -333 UAPB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -6.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.9 (-1.9) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -5.8 (-2.8) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -4.4 (-1.4) | 139.4 (-2.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -4.8 (-1.8) | 138.4 (-1.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-10 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#274) | -8.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#182) | -1.27 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#184) | -1.73 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#190) | 0.436 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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