Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -150 UIW +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIW +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -1.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -2.4 (-5.6) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -0.8 (-8.8) | 144.0 (+4.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -0.7 (-7.3) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -0.7 (-7.3) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NOLA 78 – 64 UIW |
| Dec 9, 2025 | NOLA 84 – 83 UIW |
| Feb 11, 2025 | UIW 75 – 65 NOLA |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UIW 74 – 58 NOLA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NOLA 87 – 80 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#354) | -12.0 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#353) | -1.64 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.03 (#352) | -2.25 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#345) | 0.398 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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