Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Atlantic Coast Conference · Purcell Pavilion · February 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread WAKE -3.5 Away covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money ND +125 / WAKE -163
Model Predictions
Spread Total ND win
Actual WAKE +17 145 Lost
Massey WAKE -3.9 (-13.1)
Massey Totals 151.9 (-6.9)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 20%
Baseline ML WAKE -4.1 (-12.9) 152.4 (-7.4) 32%
Baseline Plus ML WAKE -4.0 (-13.0) 152.8 (-7.8) 32%
Efficiency Plus ML WAKE -3.5 (-13.5) 147.4 (-2.4) 31%
Baseline Tuned ML WAKE -3.7 (-13.3) 150.3 (-5.3) 33%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 1, 2025 WAKE 7471 ND
Mar 13, 2024 WAKE 7259 ND
Feb 28, 2024 ND 7065 WAKE
Feb 26, 2023 WAKE 6658 ND
Feb 19, 2022 WAKE 7974 ND

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ND WAKE
Overall 11-21 19-14
Conference 3-17 10-10
Home 11-8 13-3
Away 0-10 4-8
Neutral 0-3 2-3
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 69.6 76.6
Avg Pts Against 72.1 73.8
Massey -0.6 (#180) 6.8 (#81)
Bradley-Terry -0.20 (#191) 1.49 (#64)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.12 (#183) 2.00 (#58)
RPI 0.480 (#218) 0.560 (#76)
Shooting & Four Factors ND WAKE
FG% 45.3% 46.3%
3PT% 37.4% 36.8%
REB / G 30.9 34.5
OREB / G 6.7 8.7
AST / TO 1.36 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 54.2%
TOV% 14.0% 16.8%
ORB% 20.4% 25.6%
FT Rate 17.8% 25.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.3% 52.0%
Opp TOV% 13.7% 18.3%
DRB% 74.4% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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