Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -600 ETSU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -8.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -6.8 (+4.2) | 139.9 (-4.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -7.3 (+3.7) | 140.8 (-5.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -6.9 (+4.1) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -6.6 (+4.4) | 143.4 (-8.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SAM 82 – 72 ETSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | ETSU 76 – 75 SAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ETSU 66 – 59 SAM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 60 SAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SAM 76 – 69 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#136) | -3.4 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | -1.58 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#161) | -1.57 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#168) | 0.422 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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