Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -110 COR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +6 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | COR -1.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COR -0.2 (+6.2) | 154.6 (+23.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COR -0.4 (+6.4) | 156.4 (+21.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -0.1 (+5.9) | 157.8 (+20.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COR -0.3 (+6.3) | 156.6 (+21.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PENN 82 – 76 COR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PENN 91 – 81 COR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | COR 90 – 62 PENN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | COR 86 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 2, 2024 | COR 87 – 81 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | 5.4 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#190) | 0.85 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | 1.15 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#159) | 0.549 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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