Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -500 FRES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -11.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (+31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -9.9 (-12.9) | 133.7 (+27.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -9.3 (-12.3) | 131.8 (+29.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.3 (-13.3) | 133.6 (+27.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -10.2 (-13.2) | 133.5 (+27.5) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#75) | -0.8 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#69) | -0.46 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#63) | -0.30 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#55) | 0.476 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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