Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -500 SJU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +25 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -10.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -10.7 (+14.3) | 164.0 (+3.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -10.1 (+14.9) | 163.4 (+3.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -9.9 (+15.1) | 163.2 (+3.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -9.7 (+15.3) | 166.1 (+0.9) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#24) | 5.7 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#16) | 1.06 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#12) | 1.42 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#12) | 0.519 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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