Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -1800 XAV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -17.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -15.3 (-10.3) | 157.2 (+11.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -15.3 (-10.3) | 153.6 (+15.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -15.2 (-10.2) | 154.8 (+14.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -14.2 (-9.2) | 153.4 (+15.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | SJU 81 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-1 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#17) | 5.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#24) | 1.12 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#24) | 1.65 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#21) | 0.532 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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