Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -300 XAV +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -8.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.3 (-0.3) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -7.6 (+0.4) | 142.1 (+7.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -7.6 (+0.4) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.8 (+0.2) | 143.0 (+7.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | SJU 81 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 13-7 |
| Home | 19-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#22) | 11.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#31) | 1.57 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#23) | 2.21 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#24) | 0.552 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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