Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +340 SJU -440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -9.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -6.7 (+1.7) | 155.3 (+15.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.0 (+0.0) | 150.4 (+20.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.4 (+0.4) | 152.2 (+18.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -7.2 (+2.2) | 155.7 (+15.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | SJU 81 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 18-2 |
| Home | 12-6 | 18-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#97) | 18.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#83) | 2.49 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#72) | 3.41 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#96) | 0.617 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.98 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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