Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -110 SJU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -0.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.5 (-10.5) | 148.7 (+5.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.5 (-10.5) | 148.3 (+5.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.5 (-10.5) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.7 (-10.7) | 150.6 (+3.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
| Dec 21, 2023 | SJU 81 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 18-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 19-0 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#52) | 14.4 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#85) | 2.16 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#73) | 3.42 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#128) | 0.605 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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