Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -133 SJU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -0.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -2.1 (+8.9) | 149.2 (+15.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.5 (+8.5) | 150.3 (+14.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.6 (+9.4) | 147.1 (+17.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.4 (+9.6) | 148.5 (+16.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Dec 21, 2023 | SJU 81 – 66 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#50) | 12.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#89) | 1.73 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#57) | 2.30 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#84) | 0.585 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.