Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | HC +240 NAVY -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +18 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -4.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.1 (-13.9) | 136.6 (+17.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.6 (-12.4) | 135.1 (+18.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -4.0 (-14.0) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -3.6 (-14.4) | 138.1 (+15.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | NAVY 85 – 68 HC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 58 HC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 HC |
| Jan 8, 2025 | HC 70 – 59 NAVY |
| Feb 25, 2024 | NAVY 76 – 66 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -9.3 (#328) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.76 (#327) | -0.64 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#315) | -0.83 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#311) | 0.480 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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