Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +138 USM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -8.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -6.7 (-1.3) | 134.0 (+16.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -8.1 (+0.1) | 133.9 (+16.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -8.8 (+0.8) | 134.4 (+15.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -8.9 (+0.9) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | GAST 69 – 62 USM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | USM 79 – 73 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-9 | 15-0 |
| Away | 0-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#249) | 7.0 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#269) | 1.78 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#257) | 2.07 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#276) | 0.600 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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