Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -135 USM +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | USM -0.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.4 (+6.6) | 141.0 (-10.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GAST -0.3 (+6.7) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | GAST -0.0 (+7.0) | 138.5 (-7.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.5 (+6.5) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2024 | USM 79 – 73 GAST |
| Feb 4, 2023 | USM 79 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#286) | -4.2 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#274) | -0.35 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#259) | -0.58 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#285) | 0.508 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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