Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | USM -138 GAST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -0.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -1.6 (+4.4) | 144.6 (+7.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -0.2 (+5.8) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -0.1 (+5.9) | 147.0 (+5.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.2 (+5.8) | 147.9 (+4.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | GAST 69 – 62 USM |
| Feb 4, 2023 | USM 79 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#288) | -2.5 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#237) | -0.38 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#270) | -0.64 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#252) | 0.473 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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