Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +160 UNCA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -3.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -3.9 (+9.9) | 138.8 (+7.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.6 (+9.6) | 138.0 (+8.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -4.2 (+10.2) | 138.9 (+7.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.2 (+10.2) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCA 76 – 67 UPST |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCA 83 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCA 92 – 85 UPST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 92 UPST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNCA 77 – 64 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#297) | -0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#277) | 0.62 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#283) | 0.56 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#293) | 0.538 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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