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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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88–30 on winners spread MAE 8.2 118 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iona @ Siena	-3.0	140.9	39%	53–70	✗
Manhattan @ Niagara	+4.9	129.4	68%	62–68	✓
Rider @ Marist	-2.1	130.0	38%	68–52	✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson	+0.2	143.0	45%	74–70	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris	-0.7	146.0	50%	77–85	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Cleveland State	+4.7	141.4	74%	74–79	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+7.4	143.9	79%	75–91	✓
Buffalo @ Kent State	+9.8	149.6	85%	68–74	✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State	+10.4	156.9	85%	73–77	✓
Air Force @ New Mexico	+11.2	144.7	87%	73–81	✓
Boston College @ Virginia	+14.3	126.3	87%	57–76	✓
Auburn @ West Virginia	+4.2	140.7	73%	77–80	✓
Temple @ UCF	+8.5	137.8	77%	77–70	✗
Louisville @ Notre Dame	+11.1	137.2	84%	62–76	✓
UMBC @ Vermont	+7.4	141.3	75%	68–74	✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern	+12.1	134.0	87%	61–81	✓
Northeastern @ Delaware	+6.8	136.9	77%	78–81	✓
Xavier @ Creighton	+5.9	156.6	74%	67–84	✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland	-0.4	129.5	49%	66–80	✗
Holy Cross @ Army	+9.4	140.8	82%	55–66	✓
NC State @ Wake Forest	+2.1	155.8	62%	79–77	✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire	-2.2	138.9	47%	65–69	✗
Western Carolina @ VMI	-2.5	137.4	35%	71–65	✓
Mercer @ The Citadel	-0.9	135.5	43%	74–65	✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut	+0.9	139.6	57%	74–88	✓
Stetson @ Queens University	+2.3	152.4	73%	65–71	✓
Alabama @ Oklahoma	-4.5	147.5	37%	69–93	✗
Iowa State @ Missouri	-2.0	139.6	51%	61–78	✗
Marquette @ DePaul	-8.6	156.6	19%	89–69	✓
Lafayette @ Colgate	+11.2	133.2	86%	57–69	✓
Missouri State @ Murray State	+1.4	130.5	64%	71–74	✓
Northern Iowa @ Indiana State	+3.8	143.1	69%	71–79	✓
Bryant @ Binghamton	-5.1	150.0	31%	67–84	✗
American University @ Navy	+3.2	127.9	65%	73–69	✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania	+0.0	135.4	51%	68–83	✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth	+8.0	142.6	83%	73–83	✓
Brown @ Cornell	+8.8	152.8	82%	73–80	✓
La Salle @ Rhode Island	+4.9	140.2	67%	70–72	✓
George Washington @ Fordham	+4.3	147.1	73%	70–85	✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate	-4.9	131.7	30%	55–52	✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian	-0.8	134.0	45%	76–58	✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb	+8.1	142.1	81%	58–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Campbell	-0.6	134.6	44%	78–65	✓
Samford @ Wofford	-0.0	146.5	52%	77–85	✗
Texas Tech @ LSU	-1.3	131.2	39%	76–68	✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo	+12.5	161.5	87%	77–91	✓
Ohio @ Akron	+5.1	141.5	75%	77–83	✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill	+3.2	140.2	69%	81–82	✓
Monmouth @ North Carolina A&T	+9.2	139.9	81%	79–64	✗
Cincinnati @ Houston	+15.5	129.8	88%	69–75	✓
Duke @ Georgia Tech	-9.7	133.8	21%	86–43	✓
UAB @ Rice	-2.8	153.9	37%	70–52	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack	+0.3	137.2	41%	78–71	✗
Texas State @ Southern Miss	+8.1	128.9	81%	58–67	✓
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois	-1.5	136.0	44%	73–81	✗
Lindenwood @ Tennessee State	+3.2	142.3	65%	66–83	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	+0.2	149.3	56%	73–83	✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin	-1.4	127.7	46%	61–51	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State	-1.3	136.0	56%	50–55	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+4.5	153.3	66%	74–69	✗
TCU @ Mississippi State	-1.0	132.1	51%	74–81	✗
Arkansas @ Baylor	+7.4	145.3	80%	64–67	✓
Hofstra @ Charleston	+6.4	149.4	78%	85–81	✗
Miami @ Pittsburgh	+0.2	146.7	56%	68–71	✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic	+12.8	143.2	88%	63–70	✓
Jackson State @ Grambling	+8.3	133.7	79%	66–78	✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+6.5	150.1	81%	75–94	✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTSA	-7.8	140.5	22%	66–55	✓
Seton Hall @ Butler	-0.3	131.5	40%	70–49	✓
Richmond @ Dayton	+6.7	131.0	73%	60–86	✓
Duquesne @ Massachusetts	+1.5	144.4	64%	79–87	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Valley	+8.4	147.3	83%	72–77	✓
Chattanooga @ East Tennessee State	-0.9	143.3	49%	73–64	✓
Troy @ South Alabama	+0.0	136.1	50%	60–77	✓
UL Monroe @ James Madison	+12.5	145.8	85%	45–58	✓
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina	-1.7	138.8	43%	60–59	✓
Milwaukee @ Northern Kentucky	+4.6	137.5	72%	75–74	✗
William & Mary @ Towson	+14.2	134.0	88%	73–92	✓
Drexel @ Elon	-6.5	131.7	26%	58–72	✗
Stony Brook @ Hampton	-1.3	133.9	43%	71–66	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside	+9.2	141.1	84%	65–72	✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	+2.9	152.1	63%	72–75	✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas	-5.6	139.3	29%	74–64	✓
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M	-2.4	128.6	28%	61–56	✓
Alabama State @ Bethune-Cookman	+0.1	142.9	44%	62–64	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State	-5.2	142.0	35%	62–64	✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State	+12.1	151.3	86%	68–82	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+8.8	146.6	84%	72–83	✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State	+13.7	143.3	87%	65–80	✓
Nebraska @ Maryland	+9.1	132.2	80%	63–82	✓
Ball State @ Northern Illinois	-2.6	142.8	46%	87–69	✓
Arkansas State @ App State	+8.2	130.8	79%	51–63	✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin	-0.8	155.6	45%	83–86	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois	-3.5	149.0	31%	79–68	✓
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech	+6.2	150.0	72%	91–89	✗
Clemson @ Florida State	-4.9	143.8	29%	82–81	✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's	+2.3	120.9	47%	73–62	✗
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	-3.6	144.7	33%	67–69	✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara	+12.9	159.7	86%	95–89	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	-0.3	140.9	51%	95–91	✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+4.3	134.8	70%	71–75	✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State	+5.6	144.0	76%	72–85	✓
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State	+4.2	130.2	69%	53–70	✓
Arizona @ Washington	-6.4	154.8	24%	95–72	✓
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M	+9.8	147.4	84%	76–77	✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans	-3.4	154.1	27%	80–64	✓
Seattle U @ Stephen F. Austin	+1.2	141.5	57%	65–79	✓
Texas @ Tennessee	+7.9	135.0	80%	71–82	✓
Florida @ Kansas State	+6.8	143.9	79%	50–64	✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard	+1.7	141.7	65%	67–71	✓
UTEP @ North Texas	+10.1	116.1	81%	42–52	✓
South Carolina @ Georgia	+8.7	137.5	84%	78–81	✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU	+9.2	130.0	82%	61–58	✗
Charleston Southern @ Longwood	+10.5	141.4	82%	75–63	✗
North Florida @ North Alabama	+3.1	158.0	67%	78–91	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	+1.1	138.1	59%	89–74	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+9.2	133.7	83%	72–88	✓
Alcorn State @ Southern	+3.1	147.8	62%	68–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.