Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -110 SFPA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -2.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.3 (+14.3) | 139.8 (+22.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -0.9 (+13.1) | 139.6 (+22.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -0.2 (+13.8) | 138.8 (+23.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -0.5 (+13.5) | 139.2 (+22.8) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CCSU 69 – 64 SFPA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | CCSU 98 – 90 SFPA |
| Mar 11, 2025 | SFPA 46 – 43 CCSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | CCSU 83 – 67 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CCSU 74 – 59 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#328) | -8.9 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#350) | -1.76 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.94 (#349) | -2.27 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#342) | 0.416 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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