Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -275 XAV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -5.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -5.8 (+11.2) | 158.1 (-7.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -5.9 (+11.1) | 156.6 (-5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -5.5 (+11.5) | 158.0 (-7.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -4.9 (+12.1) | 158.1 (-7.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | CREI 94 – 93 XAV |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CREI 98 – 57 XAV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | XAV 83 – 61 CREI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CREI 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 10, 2024 | CREI 78 – 71 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#15) | 13.2 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#54) | 2.65 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#45) | 3.67 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#44) | 0.627 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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