Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +350 LT -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +11 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -6.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -6.2 (-4.8) | 142.8 (-21.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -7.8 (-3.2) | 140.5 (-19.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -5.1 (-5.9) | 145.1 (-24.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -5.7 (-5.3) | 144.3 (-23.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2022 | LT 91 – 69 UTSA |
| Feb 20, 2022 | LT 95 – 71 UTSA |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LT 79 – 63 UTSA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | LT 82 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 16, 2021 | LT 77 – 66 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-13 |
| Home | 8-10 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#316) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#300) | -0.07 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#303) | -0.11 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#307) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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