Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | LT -1000 UTSA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +22 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LT -12.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -7.3 (+14.7) | 148.6 (+11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -11.3 (+10.7) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -8.5 (+13.5) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -8.6 (+13.4) | 148.6 (+11.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | LT 66 – 55 UTSA |
| Feb 20, 2022 | LT 95 – 71 UTSA |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LT 79 – 63 UTSA |
| Jan 17, 2021 | LT 82 – 66 UTSA |
| Jan 16, 2021 | LT 77 – 66 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#177) | -8.5 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#242) | -1.21 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#232) | -1.05 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#272) | 0.422 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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