Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -450 UND +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +16 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -6.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -5.2 (+10.8) | 144.9 (+21.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -7.4 (+8.6) | 143.9 (+22.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.5 (+10.5) | 144.4 (+21.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.3 (+10.7) | 145.1 (+20.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | NDSU 70 – 62 UND |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NDSU 96 – 63 UND |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NDSU 83 – 66 UND |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UND 79 – 77 NDSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NDSU 87 – 82 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#246) | -7.8 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#263) | -1.64 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#249) | -1.76 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#248) | 0.407 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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