Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | NIA -225 MAN +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | NIA -8.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIA -6.1 (-0.1) | 129.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIA -4.9 (+1.1) | 129.4 (+0.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIA -5.5 (+0.5) | 130.2 (-0.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIA -5.4 (+0.6) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | MAN 76 – 69 NIA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MAN 79 – 70 NIA |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MAN 85 – 70 NIA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MAN 72 – 65 NIA |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MAN 84 – 78 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#245) | -9.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#239) | -1.84 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#252) | -2.50 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#227) | 0.416 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIA | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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