Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -154 GW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -4.3 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -4.3 (+10.7) | 149.5 (+5.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -4.3 (+10.7) | 147.1 (+7.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -3.3 (+11.7) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -3.4 (+11.6) | 150.6 (+4.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GW 66 – 62 FOR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FOR 79 – 65 GW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | GW 88 – 81 FOR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GW 81 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2024 | FOR 119 – 113 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | -0.4 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#88) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#109) | -0.13 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.490 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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