Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | FOR +245 GW -305 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -8.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -6.0 (+2.0) | 137.7 (-9.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -5.8 (+1.8) | 137.0 (-9.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -6.7 (+2.7) | 136.7 (-8.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -6.2 (+2.2) | 138.0 (-10.0) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FOR 79 – 65 GW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | GW 88 – 81 FOR |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GW 81 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2024 | FOR 119 – 113 GW |
| Jan 28, 2023 | FOR 85 – 70 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#166) | 8.4 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#207) | 0.26 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#190) | 0.59 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#210) | 0.531 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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