Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GW -290 FOR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GW -7.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -6.8 (+0.2) | 143.9 (+25.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -4.8 (+2.2) | 144.6 (+24.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -7.3 (-0.3) | 143.6 (+25.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -7.8 (-0.8) | 143.3 (+25.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GW 66 – 62 FOR |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FOR 79 – 65 GW |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GW 81 – 58 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2024 | FOR 119 – 113 GW |
| Jan 28, 2023 | FOR 85 – 70 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | -4.0 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#128) | -0.67 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | -0.75 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.474 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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