Betting Lines
| Spread | SELA -3.5 Away covered |
| Money | NOLA +140 SELA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +16 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SELA -3.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SELA -5.4 (-10.6) | 157.9 (-13.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -3.4 (-12.6) | 154.1 (-10.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -4.5 (-11.5) | 158.2 (-14.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -4.1 (-11.9) | 158.9 (-14.9) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | SELA 82 – 78 NOLA |
| Jan 13, 2026 | NOLA 79 – 76 SELA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SELA 76 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SELA 91 – 71 NOLA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NOLA 78 – 66 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#350) | -5.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.33 (#346) | -0.32 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#343) | -0.75 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#338) | 0.472 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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