Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -305 SELA +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +4 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -8.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -7.9 (-11.9) | 140.9 (+19.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -5.8 (-9.8) | 140.5 (+19.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -8.5 (-12.5) | 138.5 (+21.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -8.0 (-12.0) | 138.1 (+21.9) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | NOLA 79 – 76 SELA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SELA 76 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SELA 91 – 71 NOLA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NOLA 78 – 66 SELA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SELA 77 – 67 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 6-16 |
| Home | 5-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#192) | -7.7 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#197) | -1.88 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#182) | -2.15 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#184) | 0.407 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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