We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Atlantic Coast Conference · McCamish Pavilion · January 28, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -8.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money GT +320 / DUKE -450
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual DUKE +43 129 Lost
Massey DUKE -7.6 (-35.4)
Massey Totals 133.0 (-4.0)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 13%
Efficiency Plus ML DUKE -9.7 (-33.3) 133.8 (-4.8) 21%
Baseline Tuned ML DUKE -7.8 (-35.2) 136.8 (-7.8) 23%
Baseline ML DUKE -8.3 (-34.7) 135.2 (-6.2) 23%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -8.1 (-34.9) 136.5 (-7.5) 25%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 DUKE 8579 GT
Mar 13, 2025 DUKE 7870 GT
Dec 21, 2024 DUKE 8256 GT
Jan 13, 2024 DUKE 8479 GT
Dec 2, 2023 GT 7268 DUKE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT DUKE
Overall 15-18 27-9
Conference 6-14 14-6
Home 11-6 16-0
Away 3-9 4-6
Neutral 1-3 7-3
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 68.7 72.0
Avg Pts Against 71.5 63.6
Massey -0.1 (#168) 11.0 (#35)
Bradley-Terry 0.04 (#175) 2.21 (#28)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.06 (#167) 2.70 (#30)
RPI 0.495 (#185) 0.618 (#21)
Shooting & Four Factors GT DUKE
FG% 41.7% 43.2%
3PT% 31.4% 32.1%
REB / G 35.5 39.5
OREB / G 10.8 13.6
AST / TO 1.16 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.3% 48.9%
TOV% 17.0% 18.4%
ORB% 29.4% 38.4%
FT Rate 16.0% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.2% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 18.0%
DRB% 69.1% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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