Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | GT +320 DUKE -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +43 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -7.6 (-35.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.1 (-34.9) | 136.5 (-7.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -9.7 (-33.3) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.8 (-35.2) | 136.8 (-7.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.3 (-34.7) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#168) | 11.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#175) | 2.21 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#167) | 2.70 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.618 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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